Nvidia Reports Tuesday at Its Lowest Multiple in Five Years. The Last Four Companies That Beat All Sold Off. This Time It Matters More.
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NVIDIA WEEK
Nvidia Reports Tuesday at Its Lowest Multiple in Five Years. The Last Four Companies That Beat All Sold Off. This Time It Matters More.
Wall Street expects $93 to $95 billion. The stock trades at 33 times earnings. Jackson Hole opens Thursday. Warsh speaks Friday. Two events, 72 hours, and the rest of 2026 starts here.
Monday, August 24, 2026 • S&P 500 (Fri close): 7,674.37 • NVDA: $214.72 • 30-Year Yield: 5.27% • BTC: $78,335
Key Idea
Nvidia reports after the close on Tuesday. Wall Street expects $93 to $95 billion in revenue. That is 67% year-over-year growth. The company guided to $91 billion plus or minus 2%. The stock trades at 33 times earnings, the lowest multiple it has carried in five years. Last week, Applied Materials posted record revenue and fell 7.5%. SanDisk grew 372% and fell 9%. Target doubled its earnings and fell in premarket. Walmart beat every line and dropped 9.15%. Four beats. Four selloffs. The question Tuesday night is not whether Nvidia beats. It will. The question is whether the stock holds the beat at 5.27% yields. If it does, the AI trade survives into year-end. If it does not, the repricing that took down four companies last week reaches the $3.3 trillion center of the market.
Our Partners
This new form of AI could create so much wealth that Elon Musk calls it “an infinite money glitch.”
The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is on record predicting this will be “the next wave” of the AI boom…
And that it will launch “the next multi-trillion-dollar industry.”
Which is why Jeff Brown is recommending this little-known Elon Musk supplier that’s at the center of this revolution.
The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is on record predicting this will be “the next wave” of the AI boom…
And that it will launch “the next multi-trillion-dollar industry.”
Which is why Jeff Brown is recommending this little-known Elon Musk supplier that’s at the center of this revolution.
THE NUMBERS NVIDIA HAS TO HIT
Management guided to $91 billion in Q2 revenue. The Street has pushed consensus to $91.8 billion, with buy-side whispers ranging from $93 to $95 billion. GAAP earnings are expected at $2.06 per share, roughly double the year-ago quarter. Q3 guidance consensus sits near $103.1 billion. Anything above that number is bullish for the stock. Anything below it is a forward miss that will dominate every headline Wednesday morning.
In Q1, which ended in April, Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue. That was up 85% year over year and 20% sequentially. Data center revenue alone hit $75.2 billion. That dwarfs AMD’s $6.7 billion and Intel’s $6.3 billion in their respective quarters. Nvidia commands an estimated 70 to 80% share of the AI accelerator market.
The Blackwell architecture is the catalyst. It began shipping in volume last quarter. Demand is sold out through mid-2026 according to management. The hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, have committed hundreds of billions to AI infrastructure. Jensen Huang has called this the beginning of a “new industrial revolution.” The market priced that revolution into the stock. Now it needs to see the receipts.
Here is the number that matters more than revenue. Gross margin. Nvidia guided to 75% non-GAAP gross margin for Q2, matching Q1. If the Blackwell ramp compresses margins, the market will punish it. Blackwell is a larger, more complex chip. Manufacturing yields at TSMC have been a question mark. If margins hold at 75%, the beat-and-hold thesis is intact. If they slip below 74%, the selloff starts before the call ends.
In Q1, which ended in April, Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue. That was up 85% year over year and 20% sequentially. Data center revenue alone hit $75.2 billion. That dwarfs AMD’s $6.7 billion and Intel’s $6.3 billion in their respective quarters. Nvidia commands an estimated 70 to 80% share of the AI accelerator market.
The Blackwell architecture is the catalyst. It began shipping in volume last quarter. Demand is sold out through mid-2026 according to management. The hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, have committed hundreds of billions to AI infrastructure. Jensen Huang has called this the beginning of a “new industrial revolution.” The market priced that revolution into the stock. Now it needs to see the receipts.
Here is the number that matters more than revenue. Gross margin. Nvidia guided to 75% non-GAAP gross margin for Q2, matching Q1. If the Blackwell ramp compresses margins, the market will punish it. Blackwell is a larger, more complex chip. Manufacturing yields at TSMC have been a question mark. If margins hold at 75%, the beat-and-hold thesis is intact. If they slip below 74%, the selloff starts before the call ends.
WARSH’S BLANK PIECE OF PAPER
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium opens Thursday, August 27, and runs through Saturday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair on Friday morning, August 28. That is 19 days before the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Warsh told reporters after the July 29 meeting that his Jackson Hole speech is “a blank piece of paper.” He said he wanted to “frame the big questions” rather than give near-term rate guidance. He also said the Fed is “not constrained by market prices.” Those two statements, taken together, mean Friday morning could move markets more than any data print between now and September.
A Bank of America survey shows 69% of fund managers expect a neutral tone. That means neutral is priced in. It is the surprise that moves markets. And the range of plausible surprises is unusually wide.
The July FOMC vote was 9 to 3 to hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. Three voting members dissented for an immediate hike. That is the most hawkish dissent in nearly a decade. In June, nine of eighteen participants who submitted projections penciled in at least one hike before year-end. The 30-year yield ended last week at 5.27% despite Bessent’s buyback intervention. If Warsh signals concern about the long end of the curve, the market reads it as tacit support for Bessent and yields ease. If he focuses on inflation and signals that September is live, the 30-year retests 5.34% and the mortgage rate climbs above 7.3%.
Warsh told reporters after the July 29 meeting that his Jackson Hole speech is “a blank piece of paper.” He said he wanted to “frame the big questions” rather than give near-term rate guidance. He also said the Fed is “not constrained by market prices.” Those two statements, taken together, mean Friday morning could move markets more than any data print between now and September.
A Bank of America survey shows 69% of fund managers expect a neutral tone. That means neutral is priced in. It is the surprise that moves markets. And the range of plausible surprises is unusually wide.
The July FOMC vote was 9 to 3 to hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. Three voting members dissented for an immediate hike. That is the most hawkish dissent in nearly a decade. In June, nine of eighteen participants who submitted projections penciled in at least one hike before year-end. The 30-year yield ended last week at 5.27% despite Bessent’s buyback intervention. If Warsh signals concern about the long end of the curve, the market reads it as tacit support for Bessent and yields ease. If he focuses on inflation and signals that September is live, the 30-year retests 5.34% and the mortgage rate climbs above 7.3%.
THE FULL WEEK CALENDAR
Monday (today): Positioning day. No major data. Futures will price the Nvidia setup. Watch put/call ratios on NVDA options. Implied volatility is pricing a 10% move in either direction.
Tuesday: Nvidia reports after the close. The call starts at 5 PM Eastern. Revenue, gross margin, and Q3 guidance are the three numbers that matter. Also reporting: Salesforce before the bell.
Wednesday: GDP second estimate for Q2 at 8:30 AM. The first estimate was 1.5%. Any upward revision supports the PMI narrative that the economy is expanding. Any downward revision feeds the consumer-cracking thesis.
Thursday: Jackson Hole opens. Jobless claims at 8:30 AM. The symposium theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Roughly 120 central bankers from over 70 countries attend.
Friday: Warsh keynote, Friday morning. PCE price index for July at 8:30 AM. That is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected near 2.7%. If it comes in above 2.8%, September hike odds spike. If below 2.6%, the dovish case strengthens. Warsh speaks after PCE. He will have the number. The market will have the number. Friday is the day that sets September.
Tuesday: Nvidia reports after the close. The call starts at 5 PM Eastern. Revenue, gross margin, and Q3 guidance are the three numbers that matter. Also reporting: Salesforce before the bell.
Wednesday: GDP second estimate for Q2 at 8:30 AM. The first estimate was 1.5%. Any upward revision supports the PMI narrative that the economy is expanding. Any downward revision feeds the consumer-cracking thesis.
Thursday: Jackson Hole opens. Jobless claims at 8:30 AM. The symposium theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Roughly 120 central bankers from over 70 countries attend.
Friday: Warsh keynote, Friday morning. PCE price index for July at 8:30 AM. That is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected near 2.7%. If it comes in above 2.8%, September hike odds spike. If below 2.6%, the dovish case strengthens. Warsh speaks after PCE. He will have the number. The market will have the number. Friday is the day that sets September.
THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE WEEK
Base
Nvidia beats at $93 billion revenue. Gross margin holds at 75%. Q3 guide comes in at $103 to $104 billion. The stock moves 5 to 7% higher Wednesday, then consolidates. Warsh delivers a neutral speech Friday, staying structural and avoiding rate signals. PCE comes in at 2.7%. The S&P finishes the week between 7,700 and 7,800. The 30-year yield holds 5.20 to 5.30%. The AI trade gets a reprieve but the rotation into durability continues underneath. You hold NVDA if you own it. You do not chase the Wednesday gap.
Upside
Nvidia reports $95 billion or above. Blackwell margins surprise at 76%. Q3 guide tops $105 billion. Jensen Huang signals customer demand accelerating. The stock surges 12 to 15%. SOX rallies 5%. The S&P pushes above 7,850. Warsh hints that the long-end yield warrants attention and signals patience on hikes. PCE drops below 2.6%. September hike odds collapse below 20%. The 30-year yield drops below 5.10%. Gold retreats below $4,500. The AI trade is back. Semiconductors lead. If you own SMH, you hold. If you own XLE as a hedge, you trim.
Risk
Nvidia beats on revenue but Blackwell margins compress below 74%. Q3 guide comes in at $101 billion or below. The stock drops 10 to 12% Wednesday. SOX falls 5 to 7%. The beat-and-sell pattern from last week is confirmed at the $3.3 trillion center of the market. Warsh speaks hawkish Friday. PCE comes in above 2.8%. September hike odds climb above 45%. The 30-year yield retests 5.34%. The S&P drops below 7,550. XLY falls 4%. TLT falls further. Defense stocks (LMT, RTX) and gold (GLD above $4,700) are the only safe ground. Cash at 5.25% is the best trade. If you are not hedged before Tuesday close, you are exposed to the single most important earnings report of the year with no protection.
Our View
Eight editions in eight days. Every call landed. This week we stop proving the thesis and start testing it.
Last week we told you the old playbook is dead. Four beats, four selloffs. The market no longer rewards backward-looking earnings. It prices forward-looking risk at 5.27% yields. That thesis faces its ultimate test on Tuesday night.
Nvidia is not Walmart. It is not SanDisk. It is $3.3 trillion in market cap, 81% of the AI accelerator market, and the single largest contributor to S&P 500 returns this year. If Nvidia beats and the stock holds, it proves that AI spending is strong enough to override the yield repricing that crushed everything else last week. That is not a small claim. It is the claim that separates a 7,800 S&P from a 7,400 S&P.
At 33 times earnings, Nvidia is the cheapest it has been in five years relative to its growth. That multiple compression happened before the report. The market already took the air out. That is different from AMAT, SNDK, and WMT, which were all trading at elevated multiples when they reported. Nvidia has been de-risked by the selloff. The question is whether the de-risking is enough.
Then comes Warsh on Friday. His speech is a blank piece of paper and he told you so. Sixty-nine percent of fund managers expect neutral. Neutral is priced. The surprise is what moves markets. If Warsh mentions the 30-year yield, even once, traders will interpret it as validation of Bessent’s intervention and yields will drop. If he does not mention it, the market assumes the Fed is comfortable with 5.27% and the long bond sells off further.
Two events. Seventy-two hours apart. One corporate, one policy. Together they determine whether the two-speed economy we identified on Monday of last week has a growth engine or a structural crack. Position before Tuesday close. That is the only advice that matters today.
Last week we told you the old playbook is dead. Four beats, four selloffs. The market no longer rewards backward-looking earnings. It prices forward-looking risk at 5.27% yields. That thesis faces its ultimate test on Tuesday night.
Nvidia is not Walmart. It is not SanDisk. It is $3.3 trillion in market cap, 81% of the AI accelerator market, and the single largest contributor to S&P 500 returns this year. If Nvidia beats and the stock holds, it proves that AI spending is strong enough to override the yield repricing that crushed everything else last week. That is not a small claim. It is the claim that separates a 7,800 S&P from a 7,400 S&P.
At 33 times earnings, Nvidia is the cheapest it has been in five years relative to its growth. That multiple compression happened before the report. The market already took the air out. That is different from AMAT, SNDK, and WMT, which were all trading at elevated multiples when they reported. Nvidia has been de-risked by the selloff. The question is whether the de-risking is enough.
Then comes Warsh on Friday. His speech is a blank piece of paper and he told you so. Sixty-nine percent of fund managers expect neutral. Neutral is priced. The surprise is what moves markets. If Warsh mentions the 30-year yield, even once, traders will interpret it as validation of Bessent’s intervention and yields will drop. If he does not mention it, the market assumes the Fed is comfortable with 5.27% and the long bond sells off further.
Two events. Seventy-two hours apart. One corporate, one policy. Together they determine whether the two-speed economy we identified on Monday of last week has a growth engine or a structural crack. Position before Tuesday close. That is the only advice that matters today.