The War at Your Gas Pump — and the One Date Trump Tied It To
★ ELITE MARKET POINT
Market Intelligence That Moves With You
Oil & Iran
Oil Jumped 5%. Tankers Are Under Fire in the Strait.
The war with Iran entered its eighth month. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz hit a wartime high, and Brent topped $105 before Trump promised to hold fire until after the November 3 midterms.
We told you Wednesday that oil was the one variable. Thursday the barrel went to war.
Key Idea
Two shocks hit the market Thursday. Wall Street fixated on one and missed the bigger one. The story that grabbed the headlines was AI. OpenAI’s revenue came in $20 billion light, and chip stocks sold off. The story that reaches your kitchen table is older and simpler. War. The conflict with Iran entered its eighth month. Tankers are under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries one in five barrels of the world’s oil. Brent crude jumped 5% and topped $105. And the only thing holding it back is a promise from Donald Trump to wait until after the November 3 midterms before he acts.
Dear Reader,
This got my attention immediately.
A powerful government in the Middle East is begging Trump for American military help.
Normally, I’d consider that just another Iran-war headline.
Except months ago…
An anonymous source with extraordinary connections told me military protection was one side of a much larger arrangement.
The other side?
Potentially trillions of dollars.
Now we’re watching part of that story play out publicly.
Click here to see what I was told during my private meeting outside D.C.
I’m not revealing the government involved here.
Because once you discover who it is…
The rest of this story becomes much more interesting.
This got my attention immediately.
A powerful government in the Middle East is begging Trump for American military help.
Normally, I’d consider that just another Iran-war headline.
Except months ago…
An anonymous source with extraordinary connections told me military protection was one side of a much larger arrangement.
The other side?
Potentially trillions of dollars.
Now we’re watching part of that story play out publicly.
Click here to see what I was told during my private meeting outside D.C.
I’m not revealing the government involved here.
Because once you discover who it is…
The rest of this story becomes much more interesting.
Regards,
Addison Wiggin
Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
Addison Wiggin
Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
This ad is sent on behalf of Banyan Hill Publishing.
The Strait
Start with the water. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel between Iran and the Gulf. Before this war, roughly 20% of the world’s oil passed through it.
This week the shooting reached the shipping. Attacks on tankers in the Strait hit their highest level since the war began. One tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, with casualties.
Oil did what oil does. Brent spiked as much as 5% and pushed above $105 a barrel. West Texas crude held near $90. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, nearly double what analysts expected.
When tankers come under fire in Hormuz, the price at your pump is not far behind.
This week the shooting reached the shipping. Attacks on tankers in the Strait hit their highest level since the war began. One tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, with casualties.
Oil did what oil does. Brent spiked as much as 5% and pushed above $105 a barrel. West Texas crude held near $90. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, nearly double what analysts expected.
When tankers come under fire in Hormuz, the price at your pump is not far behind.
Trump’s Calendar
Here is the part that should hold your attention. The one force keeping oil from running higher is a political calendar.
Reports say the White House is weighing a return to major combat operations against Iran. Trump, for now, has promised not to strike before the November 3 midterms.
Read that again. The price of oil, and the inflation number that follows it, is riding on the timing of a single decision tied to an election.
The market does not fully trust the pause. Oil pared its gains when Trump spoke, then stayed elevated. Traders know a promise dated to an election can expire the day after it.
This is no longer only an energy story. It is a decision with trillions riding on it.
Reports say the White House is weighing a return to major combat operations against Iran. Trump, for now, has promised not to strike before the November 3 midterms.
Read that again. The price of oil, and the inflation number that follows it, is riding on the timing of a single decision tied to an election.
The market does not fully trust the pause. Oil pared its gains when Trump spoke, then stayed elevated. Traders know a promise dated to an election can expire the day after it.
This is no longer only an energy story. It is a decision with trillions riding on it.
The Other Shock
The AI story is real too, and it hit stocks harder on the day. OpenAI, the company at the center of the boom, told investors its revenue is near $50 billion, about $20 billion below the figure the Street had been using.
Chips fell hard. Nvidia dropped almost 3% to $230.48. The Nasdaq lost 1.25%. The S&P slipped to 7,765. It was the second down day in a row.
So you have two pressures at once. Expensive tech getting repriced, and a war premium building under oil. One squeezes your stock portfolio. The other squeezes your paycheck. Both landed in the same week.
Chips fell hard. Nvidia dropped almost 3% to $230.48. The Nasdaq lost 1.25%. The S&P slipped to 7,765. It was the second down day in a row.
So you have two pressures at once. Expensive tech getting repriced, and a war premium building under oil. One squeezes your stock portfolio. The other squeezes your paycheck. Both landed in the same week.
Here’s Why Trump Won’t End The Iran War
They declared a ceasefire!
Until they didn’t.
Then Trump said we were about to sign a deal.
Until we started shooting at each other again.
According to one source, Trump has said an Iran deal is “close” 38 times since the war began.
In the time between writing this message and you reading it, who knows whether we’ll be hearing about an imminent deal… or more bombing.
And it doesn’t matter.
This is all a distraction.
Until they didn’t.
Then Trump said we were about to sign a deal.
Until we started shooting at each other again.
According to one source, Trump has said an Iran deal is “close” 38 times since the war began.
In the time between writing this message and you reading it, who knows whether we’ll be hearing about an imminent deal… or more bombing.
And it doesn’t matter.
This is all a distraction.
The Pump Is a Front Line
Connect the two shocks and you get this week’s real lesson. For a year, the market’s biggest risks were financial: rates, valuations, an AI bubble. This week a physical one returned. A tanker in a strait you cannot find on a map can move the price of everything you buy. Oil feeds inflation. Inflation feeds the Fed. The Fed feeds your mortgage rate and the multiple on your stocks. And right now one man’s decision, timed to an election, sits at the top of that chain. You cannot vote on it. You can only prepare for it. Watch oil and Hormuz the way you watch the Fed. This week they mattered more.
Three Ways This Resolves
Base
Trump holds the line to November 3, the tanker attacks stay contained, and oil drifts back toward $95. Stocks steady once the AI scare fades. Keep energy (XLE) as your war hedge, the equal-weight S&P (RSP) for breadth, and cash earning 5%. Do not chase expensive tech here.
Upside
Iran talks gain traction, Trump signals de-escalation, and oil falls back under $90. The inflation worry eases, yields slip, and the AI dip gets bought. Small caps (IWM) and beaten-down chips lead the bounce. This is the peace-and-cool-CPI case, and CPI lands October 14.
Risk
Size this one. A tanker sinks, or Trump acts before the vote, and Brent runs toward $120. A $20 oil spike lifts inflation and forces the Fed back to hawkish just as AI valuations wobble. Expect a 6% to 10% pullback in the Nasdaq and a jump at the pump at the same time. Hedge with energy (XLE), gold (GLD), and short-dated Treasuries. When oil and war move together, the safe trade is owning the thing that rises with them.
Is Trump bending to Netanyahu’s will?
Is he scared of Iran’s nuclear weapons?
Not a chance.
Something more disturbing is pushing Trump to bomb Iran…
… and risk World War 3.
It has everything to do with the stock market and the money in your bank account.
Click here to see how.
Are you invested in the stock market right now?
Is he scared of Iran’s nuclear weapons?
Not a chance.
Something more disturbing is pushing Trump to bomb Iran…
… and risk World War 3.
It has everything to do with the stock market and the money in your bank account.
Click here to see how.
Are you invested in the stock market right now?
This ad is sent on behalf of Banyan Hill Publishing. P.O. Box 8378, Delray Beach, FL 33482.
Our View
We said it Wednesday. Oil is the master variable. Thursday it went to war, and the barrel proved the point. One in five of the world’s barrels moves through a strait where tankers are now being hit, and the only brake is a promise with an expiration date of November 3.
The AI scare will dominate the financial news. It matters. But the story that reaches every American, at the pump and the grocery store, is the one playing out in the Gulf.
Own the leaders, but hold energy beside them, because energy is the one asset that pays you when this risk gets worse. And circle two dates. October 14 for CPI. November 3 for the election Trump has tied his next move to. Between them sits the price of your next tank of gas, and a good deal more.
The AI scare will dominate the financial news. It matters. But the story that reaches every American, at the pump and the grocery store, is the one playing out in the Gulf.
Own the leaders, but hold energy beside them, because energy is the one asset that pays you when this risk gets worse. And circle two dates. October 14 for CPI. November 3 for the election Trump has tied his next move to. Between them sits the price of your next tank of gas, and a good deal more.