The 8:30 Print That Decides Whether the Bond Rout Gets Worse
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PCE Morning • Quarter-End
Watch 8:30. PCE Decides If the Bond Rout Gets Worse.
For three editions we told you PCE was the referee. It prints at 8:30 this morning, with the 10-year at a 19-year high and the quarter closing today.
July core inflation ran at 3.3%. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% target. A hot August print pours fuel on the bond rout. A cool one is the first daylight in weeks.
Key Idea
At 8:30 this morning, the government releases Core PCE for August. That’s the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches above all others. It strips out food and gas to show the real trend. In July it ran at 3.3%, still miles from the 2% target. This is the number the whole bond rout has been waiting for. A hot print cements another rate hike and sends yields higher. A cool one hands stocks their first relief in weeks. And it lands on the last day of the quarter.
Shares are $1.10 until September 30th — after that, the price changes.
Strip a company down to five numbers and you learn most of what you need.
$1.10 — the current price of one share of Green Coffee Company.
$26M — its 2025 revenue, up from $1M in 2021.
3,000+ — retail locations carrying its product across 21 states.
2,000+ — investors already committed.
20% — the maximum bonus shares available depending on how much you invest.
Put together, those numbers describe a real, growing, revenue-generating coffee business — Colombia’s largest producer, vertically integrated in Colombia, holding the exclusive U.S. and Canada rights to Juan Valdez — that individual investors can own early, with no accreditation required.
Here’s the “why now.” Shares are $1.10 until September 30th. After that, the price changes.
The company is still private, so liquidity is limited and returns are never guaranteed. Read the full offering, size the position sensibly, and decide before the 30th.
$1.10 — the current price of one share of Green Coffee Company.
$26M — its 2025 revenue, up from $1M in 2021.
3,000+ — retail locations carrying its product across 21 states.
2,000+ — investors already committed.
20% — the maximum bonus shares available depending on how much you invest.
Put together, those numbers describe a real, growing, revenue-generating coffee business — Colombia’s largest producer, vertically integrated in Colombia, holding the exclusive U.S. and Canada rights to Juan Valdez — that individual investors can own early, with no accreditation required.
Here’s the “why now.” Shares are $1.10 until September 30th. After that, the price changes.
The company is still private, so liquidity is limited and returns are never guaranteed. Read the full offering, size the position sensibly, and decide before the 30th.
Private investments are speculative and illiquid. Returns are not guaranteed. Review the offering circular before investing. Under Regulation A, a company may change its share price by up to 20% without requalifying the offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
What Drops At 8:30
The Fed has one job right now: get inflation back to 2%. It is not there. July core PCE was 3.3%. Headline was 3.7%. Both too high.
That is why the Fed hiked on September 16, its first increase since 2023, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh promised a “timelier return” to target.
Now the market wants proof. Traders put the odds of another hike in October near 70%. Today’s print either confirms that bet or breaks it.
One number. One hour before the bell.
That is why the Fed hiked on September 16, its first increase since 2023, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh promised a “timelier return” to target.
Now the market wants proof. Traders put the odds of another hike in October near 70%. Today’s print either confirms that bet or breaks it.
One number. One hour before the bell.
The Market Is Holding Its Breath
Monday the bond rout drove the 30-year above 5.5%, the highest since 2004. Tuesday the market caught its breath. The S&P 500 closed flat at 7,683.73. The Dow slipped 0.29%. The Nasdaq edged up 0.19%. The 10-year eased to 5.24%.
Oil helped. WTI crude fell to $91 as the U.S. and Iran restarted indirect talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Do not mistake the calm for a verdict. This is positioning before a catalyst, not conviction. And today is quarter-end, so funds are rebalancing right into the print.
The tape is coiled. The number releases the spring.
Oil helped. WTI crude fell to $91 as the U.S. and Iran restarted indirect talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Do not mistake the calm for a verdict. This is positioning before a catalyst, not conviction. And today is quarter-end, so funds are rebalancing right into the print.
The tape is coiled. The number releases the spring.
Two Numbers, Three Days
Today is not the only test. The September jobs report follows Friday.
Think of them as a pair. PCE tells the Fed whether inflation is still too hot. Jobs tell it whether the economy can take more hikes. A hot PCE and a strong jobs number together would be the worst case for bonds, and for the stocks that trade off them.
One note on oil. This week’s cheaper crude helps next month’s inflation, not today’s. This print measures August, before the latest swings.
Two prints. Three days. They set the tone for all of October.
Think of them as a pair. PCE tells the Fed whether inflation is still too hot. Jobs tell it whether the economy can take more hikes. A hot PCE and a strong jobs number together would be the worst case for bonds, and for the stocks that trade off them.
One note on oil. This week’s cheaper crude helps next month’s inflation, not today’s. This print measures August, before the latest swings.
Two prints. Three days. They set the tone for all of October.
The Number Behind The Hike
Here’s where it gets interesting. Focus on the gap. Core inflation at 3.3% against a 2% target is not a rounding error. It is the entire reason the Fed hiked, the entire reason the 30-year sits at a 2004 high, and the entire reason your mortgage quote keeps climbing. Every tenth of a percent in today’s print moves the 10-year. The 10-year moves your borrowing costs and the value of every stock you own. This one release touches your portfolio, your house payment, and the Fed’s next move at once. That is why it matters more than any earnings report this week.
Three Ways The Print Breaks
Base
Core PCE lands near 3.3%, in line with July. Yields hold near 5.25%. A choppy, quarter-end tape with no clear winner. Hold short-term Treasuries through SGOV to earn over 4%, keep energy through XOM for the oil bid, and own quality tech like MSFT. Do not chase either direction before Friday’s jobs print.
Upside
Core cools toward 3.0% or below. The 10-year finally breaks under 5.1%. That is the first real daylight for stocks and bonds together. Beaten-down growth leads through QQQ and NVDA, and small caps join through IWM. Add on the print with confirmation, not on hope beforehand.
Risk
Core runs hot, above 3.4%. The 10-year pushes toward 5.4% and the 30-year toward 5.7%. Stocks fall 3% to 5%, with the Nasdaq and high-multiple names like ARKK worst hit. An October hike becomes close to certain. Trim the richest names and raise cash or add SGOV before the number. The one caveat: this is August data, so this month’s cheaper oil will not show up until the next report.
Our View
For three editions we told you PCE was the referee. It blows the whistle at 8:30 this morning. Here is the discipline for the next two hours. Do not trade the headline. Watch what the 10-year does in the ten minutes after the release. A cool number that still lifts yields means the bond market sees more inflation coming, and stocks will follow yields down no matter what the headline says. A hot number that yields shrug off means the damage is already priced. The 10-year is the tell, not the print. Keep powder dry into it. You still get paid over 4% to wait in SGOV, and quarter-end plus a live catalyst is no time to be a hero. If the number cools and yields break lower, there will be time to buy with the trend. We would rather be late and right than early and wrong.