Oil Crashed 5% on Iran Talks. SpaceX Reports Tomorrow — Down 50% From Its IPO High. The Lockup Starts Wednesday.
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WEEK-AHEAD ALERT
Oil Crashed 5% Overnight. SpaceX Reports Its First Earnings Tomorrow.
Trump announced fresh talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent dropped from $90 to $83. SpaceX, down 50% from its IPO high, faces Wall Street for the first time on Tuesday.
Monday, August 3, 2026 – S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,489.72 (+0.67%). Dow 52,485 (+0.53%). Nasdaq 25,374 (+1.32%). Brent crude fell overnight to ~$83.51 (−5.1%). WTI ~$79.87 (−5.7%). Gold: ~$4,092. 30-year yield: 5.25%. SpaceX (SPCX): ~$113, down 50% from $225.64 post-IPO high. Nonfarm payrolls Friday.
Key Idea
Trump said fresh talks with Iran will begin today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil crashed overnight. Brent fell 5.1% to $83.51 and WTI dropped 5.7% to $79.87. This is the third time in two weeks that a ceasefire or talks headline has crashed oil by 5% or more. Each time, the market rallied on hope. Each time, the talks collapsed and oil spiked back. The pattern is not peace. It is volatility. Meanwhile, SpaceX reports its first-ever public earnings tomorrow after losing half its value since June. And on Wednesday, 20% of its locked-up shares become tradable. This is the most consequential week for the biggest IPO in market history.
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THE OIL WHIPSAW — THIRD TIME IN TWO WEEKS
On Friday, Iran’s IRGC attacked two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz under US military escort. Oil closed at $90.12. Forty-eight hours later, Trump announced fresh talks and oil fell 5%. That is the pattern of this war: escalation on Friday, diplomacy on Monday, and a 5–7% swing in between.
Since July 12 when fighting restarted, Brent has swung between $72 and $102. That is a 42% range in three weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Only a handful of tankers have transited under military escort. Iran controls the chokepoint and has rejected every US proposal, including the 15-point plan submitted in March. Tehran’s condition has not changed: recognition of its authority over Hormuz.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods said it plainly on Friday: the Strait has to reopen because the world needs the oil that has been shut in. The only question is how long it takes. Trump said he was optimistic that the Strait would reopen. He has said that before — in March, April, May, June, and July.
For your portfolio, the Monday trade is clear. Energy stocks (XLE, XOP) will fall at the open. Airlines (DAL, UAL), cruise lines (RCL), and consumer discretionary (XLY) will rally. Gas prices may start easing if oil holds below $85 through midweek. But do not chase the energy selloff. Every previous oil crash on talks headlines reversed within 72 hours when the talks collapsed.
Since July 12 when fighting restarted, Brent has swung between $72 and $102. That is a 42% range in three weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Only a handful of tankers have transited under military escort. Iran controls the chokepoint and has rejected every US proposal, including the 15-point plan submitted in March. Tehran’s condition has not changed: recognition of its authority over Hormuz.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods said it plainly on Friday: the Strait has to reopen because the world needs the oil that has been shut in. The only question is how long it takes. Trump said he was optimistic that the Strait would reopen. He has said that before — in March, April, May, June, and July.
For your portfolio, the Monday trade is clear. Energy stocks (XLE, XOP) will fall at the open. Airlines (DAL, UAL), cruise lines (RCL), and consumer discretionary (XLY) will rally. Gas prices may start easing if oil holds below $85 through midweek. But do not chase the energy selloff. Every previous oil crash on talks headlines reversed within 72 hours when the talks collapsed.
SPACEX: THE BIGGEST IPO FACES WALL STREET
SpaceX reports its first-ever public earnings on Tuesday after the close. The stock is at $113, down 50% from its post-IPO high of $225.64 in June. It has erased more than $600 billion in market value. Cathie Wood bought the dip on Friday.
The numbers to watch: analysts expect $6.9 billion in revenue for Q2, driven by Starlink connectivity ($3.3 billion), AI and data center operations ($818 million from the Colossus lease to Reflection AI and xAI), and the legacy space launch business ($619 million). The company is expected to report a net loss of $0.26 per share.
But the real event is not earnings. It is the lockup. On August 6, two days after earnings, roughly 20% of pre-IPO shares become eligible for sale. Another 7% unlocks on August 21. And another 7% on September 10. The early-release trigger that would have unlocked additional shares required the stock to trade above $175.50 for five of the prior 10 sessions. With shares at $113, that trigger will not fire. But even without it, nearly 2.6 billion shares become tradable by October.
SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. It acquired Cursor, the AI coding company, for $60 billion. It leases data center capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet for over $2 billion a month. But the stock has a forward P/E of 597x and a price-to-sales of 39x. Those multiples require perfection. Tuesday’s earnings report will determine whether perfection is possible or whether SpaceX joins the list of IPOs that repriced in their first year.
The numbers to watch: analysts expect $6.9 billion in revenue for Q2, driven by Starlink connectivity ($3.3 billion), AI and data center operations ($818 million from the Colossus lease to Reflection AI and xAI), and the legacy space launch business ($619 million). The company is expected to report a net loss of $0.26 per share.
But the real event is not earnings. It is the lockup. On August 6, two days after earnings, roughly 20% of pre-IPO shares become eligible for sale. Another 7% unlocks on August 21. And another 7% on September 10. The early-release trigger that would have unlocked additional shares required the stock to trade above $175.50 for five of the prior 10 sessions. With shares at $113, that trigger will not fire. But even without it, nearly 2.6 billion shares become tradable by October.
SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. It acquired Cursor, the AI coding company, for $60 billion. It leases data center capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet for over $2 billion a month. But the stock has a forward P/E of 597x and a price-to-sales of 39x. Those multiples require perfection. Tuesday’s earnings report will determine whether perfection is possible or whether SpaceX joins the list of IPOs that repriced in their first year.
THREE WAYS THIS WEEK PLAYS OUT
Base
Iran talks begin but produce no breakthrough. Oil recovers to $86–$88 by Wednesday. SpaceX reports a modest revenue beat with Starlink at $3.5 billion but posts a wider-than-expected loss. The stock dips 5–8% on the earnings miss, then drops another 5–10% on Wednesday’s lockup. Nonfarm payrolls come in near consensus (150–175K jobs). The S&P 500 finishes the week flat as the oil whipsaw and SpaceX offset each other. If you hold index funds (SPY, VOO), this is a hold week. If you own SpaceX, decide before Tuesday close whether you are a 12-month holder or a trader. The lockup will create selling pressure regardless of the earnings number.
Upside
Iran and the US agree to a partial reopening of Hormuz with a tolling arrangement. Oil falls below $80 for the first time since July 12. Gas prices peak and start falling. SpaceX beats on revenue with AI and Colossus showing faster-than-expected growth, and announces Starlink subscriber count above 12 million. Lockup selling is minimal. The S&P 500 rallies 1.5–2%. The Nasdaq pushes toward 26,000. Airlines and consumer discretionary lead. Energy drops 3–5%. Buy quality on the dip: MSFT, AMZN, AAPL on weakness.
Risk
Iran talks collapse within 24 hours. Oil reclaims $90 by Tuesday. SpaceX misses on every metric and the lockup triggers a 20%+ decline. Nonfarm payrolls disappoint badly, raising recession fears. The 30-year yield pushes above 5.30% as the bond market prices in stagflation. The S&P 500 drops 2–3% on the week. The Nasdaq falls 3–4%. The VIX spikes above 22. If you are fully invested with no hedge, this is the week that compounds July’s damage. Keep 5–8% cash. Have stop-losses on any SpaceX position. Do not buy the oil crash until talks produce a signed document.
Our View
We have watched this movie before. Trump announces talks. Oil crashes. Markets rally. Then the talks fail and oil spikes back. It happened on July 14. It happened on July 27. It is happening again this morning. The pattern is not diplomacy. It is a volatility machine.
Do not trade the headline. Trade the outcome. Until a signed agreement reopens Hormuz to unescorted commercial traffic, oil stays between $80 and $100. That range is the floor and ceiling for energy, airlines, consumer discretionary, and the Fed’s inflation calculus.
SpaceX is the story inside the story this week. The biggest IPO in market history reports earnings for the first time on Tuesday. It has lost $600 billion in market value since June. Then on Wednesday, 20% of locked-up shares start hitting the market. The two events — earnings and lockup — will determine whether SpaceX stabilizes or whether it becomes the next cautionary tale of a mega-IPO that was priced for perfection and delivered reality.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will tell you whether the September FOMC is a live hike meeting or not. The 30-year yield at 5.25% says the bond market already thinks it is. If payrolls come in hot, September hike odds go above 90%. If they miss, the bond market may finally ease and give equities room to breathe.
August started quietly on Saturday. It will not stay quiet.
Do not trade the headline. Trade the outcome. Until a signed agreement reopens Hormuz to unescorted commercial traffic, oil stays between $80 and $100. That range is the floor and ceiling for energy, airlines, consumer discretionary, and the Fed’s inflation calculus.
SpaceX is the story inside the story this week. The biggest IPO in market history reports earnings for the first time on Tuesday. It has lost $600 billion in market value since June. Then on Wednesday, 20% of locked-up shares start hitting the market. The two events — earnings and lockup — will determine whether SpaceX stabilizes or whether it becomes the next cautionary tale of a mega-IPO that was priced for perfection and delivered reality.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will tell you whether the September FOMC is a live hike meeting or not. The 30-year yield at 5.25% says the bond market already thinks it is. If payrolls come in hot, September hike odds go above 90%. If they miss, the bond market may finally ease and give equities room to breathe.
August started quietly on Saturday. It will not stay quiet.